Welcome to Punters Corner. In this section we are going to provide you with some useful information on Section, Betting and Money Management strategies as well as provide you with, from time to time, a " Hot Tips" section.

13th October 2009

In our section below “Selection Strategies” we  discuss the merits of  focusing on Last Star Winners (LSW). There have been a couple of interesting results recently.

At Hastings on October 3rd in the Hawkes Bay Guineas, there were four LSW. One of these, Keyora, won and paid $41 for the win dividend. But wait, there is more. Three of the four LSW came home 1st, 2nd and 3rd. If you had boxed all four LSW in a trifecta, cost $24, you would have collected a trifecta dividend of just under $6k!!!!!!!

At Caulfield October 10th, in the Toorak Handicap, again there were four LSW. The winner , Allez Wonder, paid $42!!!!!. Again, three of the LSW filled the first three placegetters. If you had boxed all four LSW, cost would have been $24 and the trifecta dividend.... wait for it........ $20k!!!!!!!!!!  Very Juicy

The first thing to that a punter who wishes to prosper long term needs to bear in mind that punting history is littered with the corpses of those who were too ambitious in their aspirations.  Sure,there are individuals who have "won big" very quickly through striking a large Pick 6 or a large Trifecta but this represents the exception rather than the rule.  There is a wealth of literature available outlining betting systems, strategies etc and the common thread running through those bodies of work is that a solid, steady, incremental approach is the only way to be successful over the longer run.  ”Fast and furious will set the pace, but slow and steady wins the race" should be the guiding mantra.

This writer is of the view that there are three clear components to a successful long term betting on thoroughbreds.  They are as follows:

- Selection Strategies
- Betting Strategies
- Banking Strategies

Let us take a look at each of these components individually:

SELECTION STRATEGIES

There are literally hundreds of different options here for punters to consider, some simple, some exotic, some complicated.  This writer is the a strong adherent of the KISS (keep it simple stupid) principle; in other words the simpler you can keep it the better.  Whichever method you choose, your long term success will depend on having a reasonably good strike rate.  A method that only throws up winner in 10 or 20 or more bets runs the risk of you not only depleting your bank, but also requires a lot of patience and mental fortitude to withstand a long sequence of “outs.”

Here is a very simple one.  “Last Start Winner”.  About one in four last start winners (excluding last start maiden winners) win again at their next start.  This is not surprising given that a horse who won its last start is clearly fit and ready to win.  A one in four strike rate will give a good profit (at level stakes betting) outcome providing that the average win dividend is $5 or more.  However, by applying some common sense to final selections, that strike rate can be improved.  For example:

• Exclude Last start maiden winners..
• Exclude any last start winner who has not raced in the last 21 days.
• The distance of today’s event must be within 200 metres of your prospect’s last start.
• Track conditions must be similar (say within 2 ratings points) of the last start.
• Consider excluding any prospect that has drawn wider than 10 at the barrier.  Some common sense is needed here.  A wide draw over a short distance on a turning track (e.g Waipa or Taupo) is always a difficult assignment, whereas a wide draw over a middle distance on a roomy track (e.g Trentham or Riccarton) is OK.
• If there are more than one last start winner in today's event you then need to (a) choose one by considering factors such as barrier draw, jockey, trainer, quality of last start win etc; in other words you apply normal handicapping skills, (b) back them both or all, i.e. Dutch betting or (c) include all the last start winners in multiples such as quinellas, trifectas, first fours and trebles.

This is a very simple method that does not require a lot of research, may only give you one or two bets per meeting (sometimes none) but also throws up a number of winners at juicy double figure odds.

BETTING STRATEGIES

The most common mistake made by punters is  inflated expectations.  What I mean by this is that the average punter dreams of the “king hit”.  That is making a lot of money in a few bets and retiring from his day job.  Sure it happens from time to time but is the “exception” and not the "rule.”  Time and time again, the writer has seen a friend or fellow punter have a big collect early in the day only to walk off the course empty handed at the end of the day.

Having a sensible betting strategy combined with a sensible Selection Strategy is the key.

Again, there are dozens of different methods to choose from.  A warning; the novice punter will often have a lot of confidence in their selection methods and will adopt a cumulative Betting Strategy.  By cumulative, I mean he will “Double Up” after a losing bet in an attempt to recoup any losses to date.  This is a sure road to financial ruin as a long series of “outs” (which will happen with any selection method) will break the bank.  For example, $10 bet that is doubled to $20 after a loss, then to $40 after another loss and so on, will require a $5,120 bet on the 10^th selection (i.e. after nine successive losses).  This is a simply unrealistic scenario.

Here is a very simple Betting Strategy “Level Stakes Betting":

Again, this is a method that pays homage to the KISS principle.  The rules are as follows:

• Establish an initial bank.
• Bet 5% of the bank on each of your selections (for example if your initial bank was $100, you would bet $5, if your bank was $1,000, you would bet $50).
• As your bank increases in size, maintain the 5% rule (e.g if your bank started at $1,000  and has now grown to $1,200, your bet would be $60).
• Once your bank has doubled, take 50% of the gain and “pay yourself” (e.g, you bank has doubled to $2,000, take 50% of the gain being $500, leaving $1,500 as your new starting bank.  Keep repeating this exercise into the future).  These withdrawals represent clear profits that will never again be risked.

The beauty of this very simple strategy is that it will withstand a long series of outs.  Having said that, if you have a selection method that only pops up the occasional winner, then clearly you run the risk of losing your bank.  Hence the writers overall view that a solid, soundly based selection strategy COMBINED with a sound, sensible Betting Strategy holds the key.

BANKING STRATEGIES

Any long term betting strategy also needs a sound financial strategy.  Think of it in business terms.  You have adopted a selection strategy and combined with a betting strategy.  The missing component is the capital base and how that capital base is going to be handled.

The first thing to do is to have some clear financial goals.  For example, the goal might be something like “I want to consistently earn $2,000 per week so that I can retire from my day job and make an income from betting on thoroughbreds.”  Clearly this is  a very ambitious goal and would require (a) a lot of initial capital or (b) betting tactics that would allow that necessary capital to be built up.

Alternatively, the goal might be more modest; something like “I want to make a profit of $10,000 per annum from my betting strategy and use that money to fund an annual overseas holiday for me and my family.”

The first step is to establish  a bank.  This is your “risk capital” and is the sum you are prepared to put up and indeed prepared to lose if it comes to the crunch.  Having adopted a selection strategy, you now combine that with a betting strategy to go with it.

You have taken my advice and will never risk anymore than 5% of your initial bank on any one selection.  This means you could have 20 losing bets before you ran out of capital. Frankly, if you have more than 10 losing bets, you would need to take a long hard look at your selection method as clearly, it is not delivering.

Or alternatively, you could risk only 2.5% of your initial bank. This would be appropriate if your selection method was one which threw up longer priced winners but at a relatively low strike rate.

Let us assume your initial bank is $1,000, that you are risking 5% of your bank, that you select one winner out of every four bets, that you have four bets per week on average and the average winning dividend is $5. This would mean that in a typical week, your outlay is $200, the collect is $250, meaning a profit of $50.  This represents a profit on turnover (PTO) of 25%.  Trust me, if this scenario could be achieved, you would be on the “high road”.

Let us assume you kept your bets at $50 even though your bank is increasing.  After 20 weeks, your bank would be $2,000, meaning you have doubled your capital in less than six months.  At that point, you could then increase your standard bet to $100 and if your success rate continued, you would have $4,000 in your account after another 20 weeks, meaning a $3,000 profit in less than a year.  Not bad!!!!!

But, here is the word of warning.  Many, many punters start out with a very clear selection and investment strategy, have initial success and so change the plan.  Next thing they are chasing Pick 6’s, First 4’s, betting on greyhounds, listening to the spruiking of the Trackside team etc, etc and all of that disciplined approach goes out the window.

Remember, have a plan and stick to it.  Develop a selection strategy, combine that with a betting strategy and have a clear banking strategy.  Do those three things, make haste slowly, don’t be diverted from your plan (unless it is clear that a component, such as your selection strategy, is not working.  At worst, you will take a long time to lose your money (and if you are losing, have plenty of time to modify your components) while at best you will make a very nice profit and gain immense satisfaction from your efforts.