LAST START WINNER 

This is a very simple system.  About one in four last start winners (excluding last start maiden winners) win again at their next start.  This is not surprising given that a horse who won its last start is clearly fit and ready to win.  A one in four strike rate will give a good profit (at level stakes betting) outcome providing that the average win dividend is $5 or more.  However, by applying some common sense to final selections, that strike rate can be improved.  For example:

• Exclude Last start maiden winners.
• Exclude races with more than one last start winner.
• Exclude any last start winner who has not raced in the last 21 days.
• The distance of today’s event must be within 200 metres than your prospect’s last start.
• Track conditions must be similar (say within 2 ratings points) of the last start.
• Consider excluding any prospect that has drawn wider than 10 at the barrier.  Some common sense is needed here.  A wide draw over a short distance on a turning track (e.g Waipa or Taupo) is always a difficult assignment, whereas a wide draw over a middle distance on a roomy track (e.g Trentham or Riccarton) is OK.

This is a very simple method that does not require a lot of research, may only give you one or two bets per meeting (sometimes none) but also throws up a number of winners at juicy double figure odds.