ZAFAR contests the Group Three War Decree Stakes over 1400m – Race 7 @ 3.09 pm with Triston Moodley to ride from Barrier 7 – hasn’t quite fired as a 3yo after a stakes winning debut as a 2yo this track in May – last start at Ashburton should be overlooked as he was carted off the track on the turn, but still needs to lift – full blinkers go on for first time and has the abilty to feature here if he can find his best – TAB says “Better than last run suggests and worth following up” – showing $12/$3.30 Fixed Odds
COURT OF APPEAL races in the Listed Spring Classic over 2000m – Race 9 @ 4.29 pm with Hayley Hassman to ride from Barrier 8 – Building steadily this campaign and was desperately unlucky when running 2nd this track and trip 26th Sept – Carries a featherweight here and represents a great each way chance at odds –TAB says “Huge chance on best form” – showing $11/$3.20 Fixed Odds
New Zealand faces up to industry ‘implosion’ with 40 per cent of Group 1s under threat
Racing jurisdictions, led by New Zealand, will use a key Asian Pattern Committee meeting in February next year to argue that changes need to be made to the way Group 1s are rated to protect their status as the country faces a brutal cull of its elite races.
The New Zealand Derby is one of the races which could lose its Group 1 status. (Photo: Megan Liefting (Race Images)
New Zealand administrators are leading an urgent call for change to the way international ratings are used to determine the merits of Group 1 races, arguing maintaining the Pattern’s grading status quo would be “catastrophic for the industry”. Seven of New Zealand’s 18 Group 1 races, headlined by the country’s three-year-old Classics, the New Zealand Derby, Oaks and 2000 Guineas, are falling below the 112 international rating threshold required to retain their elite status.
The Manawatu Sires’ Produce Stakes, for two-year-olds run over 1400m, and the Telegraph Stakes, the Livamol Classic and New Zealand Breeders’ Stakes are also on the verge of Group 1 demotion.
Experienced Kiwi racing official Bruce Sherwin, who is New Zealand’s representative on the Asian Pattern Committee (APC), warned if action wasn’t taken the country’s breeding industry could “start to implode”. The dire prediction was made by Sherwin on this week’s The Guerin Report, hosted by New Zealand journalist Michael Guerin, where the potential fate of the seven New Zealand Group 1s was laid bare.
“If you don’t have stallion-making races like your 2000 Guineas for your three-year-olds, and really good fillies and mares races at Group 1 level, why would you retain those horses? When the offer comes in from Australia, you’d be selling them,” Sherwin told Guerin. If you can’t breed to have Group 1 races, the whole infrastructure and foundation starts to implode. And this is the message we’ve put forward to the APC and are taking higher to the Asian Racing Federation. They have acknowledged that there is a problem.”
APC delegates will hold a strategy meeting in February where concerns about how races are rated will come in for debate.
The Straight has been told that the push for change already has support from fellow decision-makers on the Asian Pattern Committee and the overarching Asian Racing Federation, with administrators understanding that the one-size-fits-all approach is no longer fit for purpose.
Sherwin cited two of New Zealand’s Group 1 races from last season which he says highlight the problem with the formula used to determine the ratings. Ohope Wins’ dynamic Oaks performance and She’s A Dealer’s Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes victory posed problems for the international handicappers for different reasons. Three-year-old Ohope Wins’ impressive 2.2-length winning margin in the Oaks at Ellerslie last February meant that second to fourth – the horses whose ratings are used to determine the overall race strength – were rated too low for it to meet the benchmark.
“This is a rating system that was developed out of Europe, and a lot of their Group 1 races are small fields, quality horses, but small fields,” Sherwin said. “We have a race in New Zealand, the Breeders’ Stakes. It’s a big field, luck in running came into play and it played very on-pace, the race. There was an advantage for horses on speed and on the rail. The better horses didn’t get into it. A horse like Provence, if she runs fourth, the whole picture changes. The race meets its tolerance level for a Group 1, and we’re not defending it.”
In advocating for changes to be made to the criteria used to measure horses and Group races, Sherwin added: “We’ve been under this World’s Best Racehorse Rating, the WBRR ratings for 15 years, and we’ve seen the size of both our Group 1 races shrink. And what also comes with that is a smaller grouping of high rating horses. Less Group 1 races, less Group 1 horses. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Australia’s state-based racing jurisdictions also have Pattern problems of their own. With the APC controlling the country’s black-type calendar, the nation’s smaller jurisdictions’ premier races face the prospect of being pared back for similar reasons to their cross-Tasman peers. Racing Australia was stripped of its governance powers last December, with the APC taking interim measures in order for the country to fall back into line with the international Pattern ground rules.
A string of races, including the Golden Eagle and Apollo Stakes, have been upgraded to Group 1 status by the APC but other states, including Western Australia, are just gripping to their black-type for races such as the Railway Stakes. In September, Racing WA raised the minimum weight from 53kg to 54kg for the $1.5 million Railway in a bid to help increase the international rating for the signature race and protect its Group 1 status.
“The main rationale behind compressing the weight scale by 1kg is that it may help attract higher-rated horses to the race, while also slightly increasing the likelihood of them finishing prominently and contributing their peak rating to the annual race rating,” Racing WA’s head of thoroughbred operations Vinny Meens told The Straight last month.
Sherwin says it is a conundrum that administrators are attempting to tackle in order to cling to their Group 1 race statuses.
“As we reduce Group 1 races, less horses are getting Group 1 ratings out of those ratings, and it’s spiralling down,” he said. “Two years ago, we had 12 horses starting the season at 113. And 113 is a number we need to know, because 112 is the base, the tolerance level for Group 1. So, if we can’t get four horses rating 112 and higher, the race won’t hold its Group 1 status for long.”
Sherwin and his supporters argue that the shortfall of horses – and Group 1 races – isn’t just the badge in the racebook that will be missing, it’s potentially an existential threat to New Zealand’s breeding industry. They are hoping that the likes of Takahiro Uno, the Japan Racing Association head of race planning and APC chair, are listening to their concerns.
Click HERE to watch the full episode of the Guerin Report with guest Bruce Sherwin
John says “obviously, this is a significant concern to the New Zealand racing industry and it’s no secret there are concerns on the other side of the Tasman as well – one thing I do know is that having Bruce Sherwin, who is also the chief handicapper in New Zealand, leading the charge on this matter is hugely important – Bruce is a real asset to the industry, knowledgeable, articulate and a man who is right on top of this issue”
========================================================== Lara Antipova to spell – will resume in the Autumn with the Newmarket Handicap at Flemington a likely target
After a four race spring campaign in Melbourne, which yielded a win in the listed Michael Moroney over 1400 m at Flemington, a 4th placing in the Group 2 Stutt Stakes at Caulfield and a 5th placing in the Group 1 at Caulfield last Saturday, LARA ANTIPOVA has now gone to the paddock for a well deserved spell. Craig Williams gave her the perfect ride in the 1000 Guineas, getting her away well from a tricky draw to find the rail just behind the leader, but in his post race summary, he said “jumped away perfectly, found the rail, traveled well, but just does not see out the 1600m trip at this level”
That post race assessment ruled her out of the G1 Empire Rose over 1600m at Flemington on Derby Day, which had been a potential target for her and so now she will have a month in the paddock and be aimed toward the G1 Newmarket Handicap over 1200m down the Flemington Chute in March
Greetings John, Fortuna followers and Friday Flash readers.
It was heck of a sporting and racing week, was it not? To see the stands heaving at both the Caulfield Cup and the Everest was something to celebrate for even us “stay at homers!”
I’m sure John you and “band of brothers and sisters” enjoyed the atmosphere as it unfolded while you anticipated Lara Antipova’s challenge for further group one glory at Caulfield. While it didn’t happen the way you wanted, she did give you a respectable run into 5th after seemingly being given every chance under the guidance of Craig Williams.
I believe she will now being freshened but there may be a chance she could return to Melbourne for the Newmarket in March. Never in a million years would I challenge the Te Akau powerhouse that is Mark Walker but I’d humbly suggest another group one in March, the Telegraph at Trentham, a venue where she made us sit up and take notice , would be somewhat less challenging. At Trentham John there won’t be a Tempted, a Joliestar or a Jimmysstar to worry about either!
WHEN BARRIER DRAWS REALLY MATTER
WHAT was your take on Ka Ying Rising’s narrow defeat in the $20m Everest last week? In my mind had the champ drawn an inside marble there’s no doubt he would’ve won. To run Tempted to a neck after being forced from 3 wide to 7 wide into the straight in a fast run race was mind blowing.
Tempted ran the 1200m in 1.7.32 on a soft 5 and just .89 of a second outside Yes Yes Yes’s track record. Therefore in breaking down Ka Ying Rising’s effort an inside draw would not only have given him the win but perhaps track record as well.
NO ONE IS TO BLAME FOR THE GREAT MARES DEMISE
HAVING Ohope Wins lose her life in the Caulfield Cup last Saturday marred the historic race. Clearly her form was ticking along nicely and you can’t help but feel for her connections, her strapper, the jockey and the entire Chris Waller team can you? While we all agree that the fall was an accident it was refreshing to see the racing authorities act quickly and by mid morning Tuesday no blame was attributed to any rival Caulfield Cup jockey.
For the record the stewards established that near the 300m Kings Valley shifted out marginally and Green Spaces shifted in slightly under pressure when tiring resulting in both horses making contact. Green Spaces became unbalanced after being brushed on the hind quarters by Kings Valley. Green Spaces, when unbalanced, was turned inwards and shifted in making further contact with Kings Valley which also became unbalanced and was taken in tightening the running of Half Yours.
As a result Half Yours was tightened for room between Kings Valley and Zahrann which has established clear running around the tiring Royal Supremacy. A short distance later, Half Yours fell! Ohope Wins was subsequently brought down when unable to avoid the fallen Half Yours. Stewards found that Rachel King ( Green Spaces ) and Jabez Johnstone ( Kings Valley) had both taken the necessary corrective measures to straighten and relieve any pressure caused by their mounts to Half Yours. Furthermore Ethan Brown, the rider of Zahrann, had not contributed to Half Yours being tightened for room.
The inquiry is now closed and no further action will be taken against any rider.
WELL DONE CAULFIELD ON THE COUNSELING CALL
DEALING with the loss of any horse is never easy, is it? And hats off to the Melbourne Racing Club that hosts Caulfield for offering counselling to those who were badly affected by the tragedy. When a strapper loses their favourite horse the emotional toll is deep and personal. And all of us involved in racing are feeling for those close to Ohope Wins aren’t we? An absolute tragedy.
J-MAC 5 COX PLATES ON END ?
WITH Moonee Valley under reconstruction all eyes will be on Flemington this Saturday with the running of the WS Cox Plate. Moonee Valley, often referred to as the “theatre of dreams” will be completed and ready to host the “greatest two minutes of sport” in 12 months.
In the meantime our very own James McDonald is hunting down his 5th consecutive Cox Plate. Can his mount Aeliana join the likes of Anamoe, Romantic Warrior and Via Sistina (twice)?
MAYBE A CUP SMOKEY?
GETTING back to the Caulfield Cup how impressive was Kingswood. To sit three wide without cover was huge. Normally the Caulfield Cup identifies a few prospects for the Melbourne Cup. As Kingswood isn’t nominated for Flemington the big question, did anything stamp itself as a genuine Melbourne Cup hope? It might be a long shot but in running 9th Middle Earth caught my eye.
The race was run to a slower than average tempo to 800m mark before going into over drive over the final 400. Middle Earth was left a little flat footed but once into a rhythm rounded it off as good as any. He was placed in the Melbourne Cup last year.
4TH DAY AT FLEMINGTON HAS A GLOW ABOUT IT
COULD the last day of the Flemington spring carnival be the best race day of all following the announcement by their respective trainers that Autumn Glow, who blew them away in the King Charles at Randwick, and Tempted, the dazzling Everest conqueror of Ka Ying Rising, are both earmarked for the day? It’s amazing to think that 14 time winner Autumn Glow has never races outside NSW with 10 of her starts at Randwick and 5 at Rosehill. Autumn Glow is being aimed at the $3m Champions Mile while Tempted is being set for the Champions Sprint.
SHOULD ALL 3 BIG SPRINT RACES BE WEIGHT FOR AGE?
CAN anyone explain to me why the Railway Handicap at Ellerslie on Karaka Million night isn’t a weight for age affair like it’s fellow group ones, the BCD Sprint at Te Rapa and the TAB Telegraph at Trentham? Incidentally were you aware that the Telegraph in 2027 won’t be held over the Wellington Cup meeting but instead it’s been moved to March to sit alongside two other group ones, the Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes and the NZ Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes?
THE CUP COUNTDOWN
FOR the past few weeks I’ve been sharing with you a bit of form on two international stayers who are heading to Flemington for the Cup.
GOODIE TWO SHOES
7yo mare by Fastneck Rock from Fits Like A Glove trained by Joseph O’Brien
Odds $21
She last raced on September 12 at Leopardstown over 2400m and ran second last. It was a good surface.
She won the group 2 at Qatar over 2800m on August 1 also on a good track.
Back in July she ran second on a good track in Ireland over 2700m.
Twelve months ago she ran second to Half Yours in the Cup.
SONS AND LOVERS
5g by Study of Man from So In Love trained by Joseph O’Brien
Odds $21
He ran second at her last start on September 12 at Leopardstown over 2400m on a good track.
He won at Longchamp in Paris over 2800m on July 15.
In 28 starts he’s won 6 times with 8 placings. He has placed form in soft ground but all his wins have been on good tracks.
ELLERSLIE ESSENTIALS
Here are three horses I’ve pencilled in for next time after their runs last Saturday.
MOLLIFY: was held up throughout much of the final straight over 1400m in her first run for the season. She won second up last season about this time of the year. She in fact won 3 of her first 5 runs in distances ranging from 1600 to 2100m.
MISS MAGNETICA: was slow to go in the Soliloquy but hit the line with real purpose and she is a definite contender for honours in the group one Guineas at Riccarton next month. She had the quickest last 800 and 600 last Saturday.
THE PROPHET: isn’t far away from recapturing his best form. He needed the 1600m hit out and after being slowly away he got on heels when the pace slackened. He’s only had 15 starts and is possibly the most lightly raced 7yo around. He normally comes to hand quickly in each of his preparations.
