Guest Commentator – Des Coppins

Greetings John and Fortuna followers

Aren’t we having a fickle weather system and how our trainers and jockeys must feel envious to see the tracks playing beautifully in both Sydney and Melbourne last Saturday while we were dealt with the heavy stuff at both Hawera and Matamata.

We are due for a true spring here, too,  and hopefully it’s not too far away.

BANNING THE WHIP

To whip or not to whip, that’s the big question hovering over the industry at the
moment?
Not everyone will agree but there are many in the business who would work  on banning the whip but grant leniency for jockeys to carry it for safety issues only and NOT for the purpose of trying to extract the last piece of energy to get their mounts to  the post first.
Whether it hurts a horse or not, to my way of thinking it conveys not the right message in today’s animal welfare concerns which we all have to be mindful of. With every horse playing on a level whip-less playing field many believe no one would have an advantage over anyone else but as long as jockeys are allowed to carry whips and strike animals in any way the ominous dark cloud hovers over our sport.

These whip rules, that differ from country to country, are confusing. In Australia and NZ jockeys are only permitted to use the whip on 5 occasions before the 100m mark of a race and not in consecutive strides but over the last 100m the whip maybe used at the jockeys discretion.

In the UK, the whip maybe used just 6 times in total in any flat race. Should the whip be used 4 times or above the required limit the horse will be disqualified. The UK could also fine or suspend the jockey if the whipping occurs less than the 6 times BUT it’s deemed excessive; or if the horse is out of a dividend bearing position or the whipping is above shoulder height.

Banning the whip will happen one day; hopefully it’s in our lifetime but as sure as night follows day it could  be a game changer for the better when it eventually comes.

FUTURE ODDS BETTING

Are you for or against having a punt so far out from a given race?
Let me share a story that does prove that every now and again one could find one that may  slip by the keeper ( ie the bookie) and it may be a lesson  to frequently screen the early odds for some of the big races whenever you can.
Some years ago I jumped onto a price that I thought was quite staggering; 300  to one for an unqualified starter  in the Melbourne Cup, Leica Falcon; a horse with 2 wins to his name. It wasn’t a massive bet; it didn’t need to be at those odds.

For the record I’m not a 4-figure type punter either but I did have a hunch for the horse; saw it was nominated for the Cup and had a respectable play on the nose. I liked its first couple of wins and even though the big  race was still at least 2 months away when I placed the bet I was keen to see how close Leica Falcon would get to qualifying for the Cup, if at all.

Things played out handsomely in the lead up to the Cup. He won those two races races at prominent country meetings before jumping to city class at Sandown in October where he again won and that’s when others began sharing the optimism that he could be a lethal spring staying contender. To make the Melbourne Cup field he needed first to win the next big race, the Herbert Power.

That he did, with ease! The Caulfield Cup was next and his sectionals were the quickest in the race when he stormed into 5th behind Railings. As a result of his lead up form, Leica Falcon was installed second favourite behind Makybe Diva in the Cup.

He ran 4th behind the great mare and at the top of the straight he made a big move to challenge the lead but couldn’t quite round it off.  Kiwi superstar, Xcellent, ran third with On A Jeune, second. Of course I enjoyed the ride of my potential windfall bet despite eventually getting what Paddy shot at!

So am I a fan of Futures Betting? Not really is the answer.

Oddly you might say but I don’t recall ever having another bet a la Leica Falcon since.
Maybe it’s because it was so near yet so far away with Leica Falcon or maybe it’s because the odds this far out aren’t really worth the risk whether it’s on a long shot or a more favoured runner.

For example to see Sir Delius at just $6 some 4 weeks out from the First Tuesday might look attractive to some but not for me. If the race was run tomorrow his odds would be $3 at the worst. He has the Cox Plate as the lead up and if he wins again his odds in the Cup would still be around the $3 mark but so much can go wrong as well we all know and racing over the next 3 weeks will throw further curve balls in calculations with other important lead up races. In other words I’d rather back Sir Delius at half his quote on Cup Day itself if I don’t find something else.

For the record I’ve  gone through the TAB odds for the Melbourne Cup and there’s nothing even close to a Leica Falcon type runner odds wise.
In reality I didn’t expect to see one. That being the case, these days  I’m happy to wait until Cup Day before having a flutter.

THREE TO FOLLOW FROM FLEMINGTON

ENXUTO: he did very well over 1400m on Saturday and he hit the line as good as any. He’s looking for a mile. He’s a previous winner over 1600m at Flemington and there’s bound to be a good opportunity for him in the coming weeks.

HALF YOURS: the run in the Turnbull was the perfect Caulfield Cup dress rehearsal. He’s one of the best stayers going around at the moment and he is sure to be well backed to take out the Caulfield Cup.

ARABIAN PRINCE: his run in one of the Derby lead ups was eye catching. He finished within two lengths of the winner Options but it was only in the last 300m he became interested as he warmed into from near last on the turn to run 5th. He’s only had two starts and he’s bred to stay; he’s from the same family as Trav, Princess Mellay and Blood Brother; all ultimate Cup winners in NZ.

Good punting!

Des Coppins
021 448 052
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