Riccarton – Saturday

ZAFAR  makes his much anticipated debut  in the 2yo Listed Berkley Stud Champagne Stakes at Riccarton on Saturday 2nd May – Race 5 @ 1.32 pm with  Opie Bosson to ride from Barrier 4 – has made a big impression with his three trials performances – thrown in the deep end here  making his debut in a Stakes race, but  appears to have a lot of ability – TAB says “Well bred Colt on debut. Okay in a recent trial. Respect any market moves”  Showing Odds of $2.30/$1.22

Warrnambool – Tuesday 5th May

Acceptances still to be finalised, but LEADERBOARD has been nominated for the Brierly Steeples while MALBOROUGH BAY and WEST INDIES have been nominated for the Maiden Hurdles event

John will be attending this 3 day carnival and we have several clients making the trek to Warrnambool also

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The Australian arm of wagering giant Entain has exceeded head office’s expectations with a surprise doubt-digit growth in net gaming revenue in the first quarter of 2026.
BY BREN O’BRIEN – The Straight – APRIL 16, 2026

Entain’s Australian business has staged a strong turnaround in fortunes with a 12 per cent growth in net gaming revenue across the first three months of 2026, as compared to 2025. After a run of challenging results, the Ladbrokes and Neds brands staged a turnaround, surpassing internal expectations with a double-digit jump. In the same quarter last year, net gaming revenue had dropped eight per cent.

While “customer-friendly sports results” were attributed to the decline in Q1 last year, a change in customer approach, prompted by a greater compliance focus, has also played a part in Entain’s Australian challenges. It cut its workforce by 10 per cent late last year, while it exited from initiatives such as the Ladbrokes Racing Club as well as a host of sponsorship agreements.

Having reset the strategy of the business – what new Australia and New Zealand CEO Andrew Vouris calls “winning but not at any cost” – it appears to have gone through the worst of the slump. On top of that, punter results have started going the way of big bookmakers again. The Straight reported that last Saturday was the best day, in terms of margins, for the Entain bookmakers in Australia in at least five years.

The Australian result was front and centre of Entain’s global results released on Thursday, which, along with a 13 per cent growth in NGR in the UK and Ireland, helped online NGR increase by 5 per cent across the group.

“We entered 2026 with strong momentum, which has continued in Q1, with strong volume growth across our diversified portfolio,” Stella David, chief executive of Entain, commented. “This further demonstrates our ongoing strategic execution and strengthening operations, and also highlights the growth embedded in our globally scaled business.”

FY26 guidance globally remains unchanged, with online NGR growth of five to seven per cent. “Entain remains comfortable with market expectations for FY26 Group Underlying EBITDA and reiterates its confidence in generating at least £500m of annual adjusted cashflow in 2028,” it said.

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Welcome to the Entain Edition for April 2026

The world of wagering has undergone major changes in the last 30 to 40 years. The advent of the internet, round-the-clock broadcasting and the ability to place a bet from a phone in your pocket means customer behaviour has changed drastically in that time.

In previous missives of Entain Edition, we have touched on the huge growth of fixed odds betting on racing compared to betting on the tote, and that has a flow-on effect to how success is defined within the racing industry.

Turnover used to be the pure measure for racing clubs and the codes, but that was in a world where take-out rates from the various tote pools were fixed at a certain percentage. Tote betting is essentially customers betting against each other, whereas in fixed odds, it’s very much more a case of punter and bookie doing battle.

That means there are a few other factors that need to be considered when digesting the By The Numbers graphic which features at the bottom of this newsletter. We include the overall field sizes for each racing code for that very reason – if the equine codes can average 10-14 runners a race, that’s the sweet spot for everyone (bookie, code and customer).

More than that though, how the punt goes on the day for our customers has an effect on turnover. If a string of well-backed favourites salute the judge at a meeting, chances are turnover will be up on a year-on-year basis as our customers take the opportunity to invest their winnings.

But that also works the other way – if it’s a tough day for the punters, you may see turnover drop, but the actual revenue from the day would ultimately be a good result for the industry because of the high margins.

If the results end up about even over the year in terms of “punters’ days” versus “bookies’ days”, that’s where we would love to land, but that doesn’t always happen, thanks to the glorious uncertainty of racing.

I trust this provides a little more context to the figures you see each month.

Please share or forward this newsletter to anyone in the industry who you think might like to read this. They can sign up to receive the Entain Edition directly by contacting communications@entaingroup.co.nz. If you no longer wish to receive this newsletter, please contact the same address.

Sam Moncur
Managing Director – New Zealand
Entain Australia and New Zealand

John says “The Entain NZ Turnover figures for April have bucked an upward trend for the last two years or so, showing a decline in T/O for the month of 7.7% on Thoroughbreds, although interestingly, there were 121,000 “actives” (meaning people having a bet) compared to 109,000 in March 2025, an increase of 11% year on year and Sports Betting for the month showed a 50% increase year on year – I am only speculating, but a more vibrant Pacific Super Rugby comp this year and a strong start to the season by the NZ Warriors may have been factors here

Readers should also take note of Sam Moncur’s comments about lower turnover not necessarily meaning lower revenue for the TAB, particularly from Fixed Odds Betting. TAB profitability will increasingly become of vital interest to us all as we draw closer and closer to the end of the 5 year “guarantee” from Entain” and the quantum of funding for the codes becomes very dependent on TAB profitability

John also says “As we know bookmaking has always been regarded as somewhat of a dark art – back in the day, when I was still only aged 19, I was living and working in the town of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia and I got to know a guy who was a “penciler” for the local bookie – the “penciler” was the Clerk who would sit behind the bookie on his stand at racedays and it was his job to jot down a record of all of the bets and relay vital information to the bookie about the bets being taken, so that the bookie could “balance his book” making sure that he had his pricing right – for a young guy from NZ, where bookies had been outlawed for 50 years or so previously and we only had tote betting, this was very fascinating and it was very exciting to go to the races and observe the “bookies ring” in action. Things have changed of course and the pencilers have been discarded to the dustbins of history, being long replaced by algorithms and more recently AI, and the article below from Entain provides some interesting insight to how the modern “bookie” operates in this day and age”

Welcome  to the Bookie Breakdown. 

This week, we’re focusing on the Night of Champions. For those new to the column, this is where I pull back the curtain on how we price and trade our New Zealand harness markets, the decisions we got right, the ones we got wrong, and the reasoning behind both.
What a night of racing to write about. The best against the best and it delivered. Here’s our take on the key races.

This was an interesting race to price. You had to quantify the very public wrap trainer/driver Tony Herlihy and his camp have on the filly Our Col, alongside the profile and body of work of Kyvalley Ray.
We opened Our Col as the $2.30 favourite, and Kyvalley Ray at $2.90, with the draws being the main factor in that decision. The market saw it completely differently. Kyvalley Ray was heavily backed days out, and it was clear early that the market was going to flip.
Kyvalley Ray ended up holding 59% of the Fixed Odds win investment, suggesting the market had her closer to a $1.60 to $1.70 chance, making our closing price of $2.15 still a touch big. Our Col’s passing lane victory was a great result for us, holding just 27%.
One to watch: Kairo held more investment than Tattica despite starting at a bigger price and may be one to keep an eye on next start in a more suitable race.

It’s safe to say we got this one wrong. We have really struggled over the past year and a half to price this crop of 3-year-old fillies, and that continued on Friday night.
When we framed this market, we thought there were a few ways the race could play out. The customers saw one way, and one only. Smackdown was heavily supported early in trading – the $11 opening price was value and the $7.50 closing price on money invested alone was bang on.
We opened Ripples at $2.90 with question marks around the uncertain race map drawing 1 the second line, which in hindsight was much too generous. Even the $2.20 on the close was too big, holding 53% of fixed win bets. In a race where we had little confidence, we needed to trade more aggressively and should have been selling less than $2 on the jump.
The lead/trail scenario played out exactly as the market anticipated, and the two best backed runners ran first and second.

The Garrard’s Sires Stakes 3-year-old colts and gelding semifinal was a great example of a race where most punters would assume we cleaned up, but we didn’t.
Allamericanplayer was very well found in this market, priced and traded well, holding around 48% of money invested, which is perfect for a horse at that price point of $2.10. Where we came unstuck was not respecting the money for Lincoln Wave.
We penalised him heavily from his wide draw and his big starting prices in previous three-year-old races. The mistake there was that Jumal was in those fields, which explains the inflated starting prices, so opening the Ray Green and Nathan Delany-trained runner at $101 was unnecessary.
With Lincoln Wave holding 1.5% of the book, we should have been trading him at $51 to $41, not $91, which would have limited the damage. A losing result on the win book, but when you account for multis and the Box Seat Boost on Allamericanplayer, which held $20k, we came out in front for the race.
Some lessons for us in this race regardless.

These types of races with an extremely hot favourite are largely non-events for us in terms of win market pricing, as they almost price themselves. Keayang Zahara was $1.05 all day long – my nana could have priced her, and she calls harness racing ‘chariot racing’.
Where the difficulty comes is in the Extras markets we open around these races. They are complex and do not always directly reflect the win market.
The two markets that saw the most action were the market with Keayang Zahara removed, and the first NZ horse home. We got one right and one wrong. We had mapped Jilliby Ballerini to get a good trip and had her as firm favourite in the Zahara out market against Gus, who we knew would have to do plenty of work.
Meant To Be at $7.50 to be first Kiwi home was, in hindsight, blatantly wrong and was found by a few astute judges.
Overall, though, Keayang Zahara was a great result in our win book, holding just 60% of single win bets. Meant To Be was our worst result, closely followed by Gus.

Plenty of opinions out there on the market for The Race by Sport Nation, and that is what racing is all about.
With this race being Australian dominant, there were a few external factors that helped shape our closing market. Early doors, there was plenty of chatter around the speed map, and personally I think this is one of the weaknesses in NZ harness markets. Once the market settles on one likely scenario, it shapes the majority of early betting.
We sold a very large proportion of our early bets on Swayzee and Captains Knock, with customers playing the anticipated lead/trail situation. We opened Swayzee at $4.20 and were more than happy selling bets there, sitting at $4 for as long as we physically could before external factors caused us to close shorter at $3.20.
Leap To Fame, with his high profile, was the best backed runner in the race and was our worst result. The Janitor was a drifter in the market, but we knew that would be the case and were comfortable putting ourselves in that position. Merlin was the best backed Kiwi by a margin.
I’m happy with how we handled this race from a pricing and trading perspective. It is very easy to listen to the outside noise and reshape your market. We did not on this occasion.

This feature meeting was a night where we just came out in front across the 10-race card. Ripples was our worst result on the night, with our best results coming on the undercard, including Bettor Reaction, Leo Lincoln and, surprisingly, Francent.

Hope you all enjoyed the racing and the extra betting options we had on offer. Back a couple winners but not too many.

Greetings John and Friday Flash readers

Not many of us this year  – irrespective of location –  have escaped the harsh elements and Wellingtonians copped its  share of the atrocious stuff earlier in the week.Some of us based in the Capital got through the sudden downfalls with just  a general outdoor tidy up but many  others weren’t so lucky and we certainly feel for them. Mother nature often throws a few unexpected curve balls at times doesn’t she?

Onwards and upwards to a very pleasant distraction from unwelcome storms to a  most exciting weekend of sport and racing. It’s  a well documented super rugby bonanza at the new Christchurch stadium; a sold out Warriors game at the Wellington Cake Tin and black type racing at Riccarton and Te Rapa and across the Tasman. Then of course on Sunday night in Hong Kong the two best horses in the world, Romantic Warrior and Ka Ying Rising are in action again.   But above all this, of course, it’s Anzac Weekend. A special time for reflection. Lest we forget!!

WHERE HAVE ALL THE CENTRAL DISTRICTS TWO YEAR OLDS GONE?

HAS two year old racing reached a road block at this time of the year in the CD?
It certainly appears this way when you consider the Otaki two year old race today was abandoned because of insufficient entries. This follows on from the Wanganui meeting last Saturday when only 4 ran including one from the north while a week earlier the two year old race at Otaki had 7 runners with just 3 from the CD.

Despite the lack of interest the governing body has injected another $5k into the two year old race at Woodville next Wednesday with it now worth $22k. Does this makes sense? Could the $5k be of better use as say a transport additional subsidy?

The CD still has two prominent two year old races to go this season, the Castletown Stakes around the 3rd week of June and the Ryder Stakes in the last week of July. Some 24 two year olds trained in the Taranaki, Wanganui and Manawatu regions competed in trials at Foxton recently. Maybe these late developers might make a late play to repel the northern dominance as we close in on both the Castletown and the Ryder. With 13 accepting for the two year old event at Te Rapa on Saturday things look far more rosier in the north.

If both these races important black type two year old races coming up don’t have a decent input from the CD this year maybe it’s time to give them another place on the calendar.

THE RYDER STAKES TRUMPS THE CASTLETOWN STAKES 

SOME  great CD trained two year olds have won both these races over the years. Since 1970 the Levin Racing Club Ryder Stakes has provided the last opportunity for NZ‘s late maturing two year olds and with a penchant for the expected wet ground to win a prized black type event. Gordon Ryder, an ex club president and a breeder, had a vision to programme a race at the end of the season as a gateway to the spring classics.

The roll of honour certainly kept pace to his vision when you consider the big race three year olds like Altitude,  Beechcraft, Arctic Wolf, Weston Lea, Veandercross and Egyptian Raine all have their names on the Levin trophy. All are subsequent group one winners; multiple time for a few in fact!

The Castletown Stakes, which is run at the end of June, doesn’t boast a historic record anything like the Levin race. I cannot see a winner from the last 15 years in the Castletown that managed a group one outside Volpe Veloce who won the 2018 Railway after the 2016 Castletown.

The bottom line is that both races need protecting and maybe the best way to do it is to shift either of them or both out of the winter and into a season more in line with better CD numbers. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how many CD two year olds will be around for both upcoming races.

THE 50TH ANNIVERSARY OF QUEEN OF THE SOUTH

LAST week we reflected on the amazing Grey Way as it was one year short of the 50th anniversary of arguably his greatest of his 51 wins, the Easter Handicap at Ellerslie.

The 50th anniversary of one of the greatest racemares of her era, Show Gate, coincides with the 1976 Canterbury Gold Cup which is run at Riccarton on Saturday. She in fact won the race  twice, in 1976 and two years prior in 1974. And the four horses that ran second and third to her in the Canterbury Gold Cups were Sobeit, Guest Star, Silver Lad  and Mayo Mellay! If you are a baby boomer like me and have been involved with racing ever since you could walk you’ll agree that those also rans weren’t too shabby!)

On Saturday it’s also the Great Easter and, yes, Show Gate won that too, three years earlier. That she was a prolific winner, like her southern buddy Grey Way, is without fear of contradiction. Between them, in the 1970’s era, they won 81 times!!

In my humble opinion her greatest win was her last, the 1977 Trentham Stakes. Bob Skelton, who held so much devotion for the horse they dubbed the “Queen of the South” felt her slightly stumble inside the last 200m but her will to win didn’t get the better of her as she wore down the excellent front runner, Varnarmo. She had fractured her sesamoid bone ( for the second time) and the massive crowd went from cheering en masse to deadly silence as Bob Skelton led her back into the birdcage. Click HERE to see footage of the 1977 Trentham Stakes
And click HERE to see her full story from the Racing Hall Of Fame

Show Gate was truly a marvel.

10 FACTS ABOUT SHOW GATE

1. She won races from 1200m to 2400m and was unlucky not to win the Wellington Cup (3200m) when second to Good Lord in 1977 after her jockey rode without a whip from the top of the straight.
2. She was bred, owned and trained by Gordon Thomson, a chicken sexer.
3. Not only did a fractured sesamoid end her career at Trentham  she was patched up after a similar injury in the spring of 1974 after winning her first 5 races as a five year old.
4. When she won the Trentham Stakes on “ three legs” she broke the NZ record over 2400m of 2.26.1.
5. She was NZ Horse of the Year in 1975 and 1977
6. She was inducted into the NZ Racing Hall of Fame in 2012
7. Over the NZ Cup Carnival she won the three main black type races in 7 days; the Stewards (1200m); the Canterbury Gold Cup (2000m) and the Churchill Stakes ( 1600m).
8. She had one Australian race, the Theo Marks in September 1976 and was unplaced
9. Show Gate produced three foals; two were colts by Honey Crepe, Sporting Show and Every Show. Between them they won 21 races. Her filly Show Queen was by Balmerino who became the dam of Showella who Frank Ritchie trained to win the group one NZ Stakes ( Zabeel Classic) in 2000 and the group one 1999 South Australian Derby.
10 Show Gate died at Prebbleton Farm in Canterbury in 1977 with spleen cancer.

LAST SATURDAY IMPROVERS

GRANDE GALLO: likes Ellerslie and the run on Saturday was that of a definite improver as attacked the line over 1200m to record the last 400 and 200.

HAPPY YOUMZAIN : she copped a check start from the wide draw and she did very well to finish a close 4th with the fastest last 800 and 400. She might start on Monday at Ellerslie.

HANKEE ALPHA: her run in the last was enormous. Had she made her run earlier she wins! She was asked to do too much from the tricky draw but stormed home with far and away the quickest sectionals.

Good punting!

Des Coppins
021 448 052

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MALBOROUGH BAY  runs in the Maiden Hurdle – Race 1 @ 12.20pm AEST – 2.20pm NZT – but is E2 on the ballot so will need two scratchings to get a start  – Had his first Aus run over the Hurdles  26th March – jumped well but ran out of steam closing stages – big improver if he gets a start – Odds not showing yet

WEST INDIES  also runs in Maiden Hurdle – Race 1 @ 12.20pm AEST – 2.20pm NZT  on debut and has had three trials and one flat race to prepare –  may well need this run, but has taken to the jumping game well so far – TAB says  “Continues to improve” – Odds not showing yet

LEADERBOARD  races in the Spencer Memorial Steeples with Will Gordon to ride in a field of just 4 runners – – Race 5 @2.55pm AEST – 4.55pm NZT – last years Grand National Steeples winner who resumed at Warrnambool 26th March running 4th carrying 76.5kgs – carries 69kgs this time – a very consistent Steeplechaser who never runs a bad race – TAB says  “Can improve on his first up performance” – Odds not showing yet

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Matamata 

Traditionally we have offered a Jacket range and a Cap and these are both still available but now we have added a “hoodie” range and these can be ordered from our website at the link HERE – all sizes available – note that our Merchandise is offered at cost and price includes shipping – $80 for the Hoodie and $35 for the Cap if you have queries about order options just email jessica@fortuna-nz.com 

Pictures of the Hoodie (front and back) are below and also a picture of the Cap

Guest Commentator – Des Coppins

Greetings John and Friday Flash readers

All the best to you and your big group of Owners for your three jumpers at Terang on Sunday John

ONE YEAR FROM THE 5OTH ANNIVERSARY OF BOB SKELTON AND GREY WAY

IT’S the Easter Handicap at Ellerslie on Saturday but not as we knew it in days gone by. Not only has it dropped its ratings progressively over the years but it also moved from its traditional Easter Saturday spot a few years back. Although previously a group one, in 2017 it was reclassified as a group 2 and relegated once more to a group 3 four years ago in 2022.

n 2016, the conditions of the race changed from a handicap to a set weights and penalties in an effort to arrest the decline but reverted back to handicap conditions in 2018.

On Saturday we are one year short of arguably the greatest Easter Handicap, won by the mighty Grey Way in 1977. Few would argue he was the champion sprinter miler of his era.
In winning the Easter the horse affectionately  known as the “Washdyke Wonder” lumped 60.5kgs in what was a mesmerising performance ( click HERE to see race replay)

He didn’t just win it, he won it in spite of not having previously scored right handed. Rider  Bob Skelton was praying for what almost seemed an impossible gap , less than three horse widths out in tight quarters close to  the rails with a clump  of high class gallopers surrounding him.

Race outcomes like this don’t come much better. It was a hot field and worthy of group one status.

I used to catch up with Bob Skelton a lot, more so in his retirement. I recall the great man telling me and others at various functions that he could just about point to the spot of grass at Ellerslie where he told Grey Way, “ There’s no way you’ll poke through there,” but he reckons the horse responded with   “yes I can !”
He found that needle eye gap alright.  He just took charge of Bob.

“ I’ve never ridden a horse with such determination to win and the Easter proved it, ” recalled Bob.

When Bob Skelton passed away in Mornington almost 10 years ago his son Craig asked me to relay  a  eulogy on behalf of the NZ racing industry. I was honoured to be asked and while most of the Melbourne racing congregation will always remember Bob as the Melbourne Cup winning rider on Van Der Hum in 1976 I reminded them of Bob’s Grey Way Easter and invited them to check out the race on YouTube and witness the most amazing result. I’m sure they did!

TEN INTERESTING FACTS SURROUNDING THE WASHDYKE WONDER

1. Grey Way had 51 wins, 27 seconds and 21 thirds from 164 starts.
2. He raced from 2 to 10 years. He won 4 times as a two year old and twice as a 10 year old.
3. He was inducted into the NZ Racing Hall of Fame in 2010.
4. He set a track record at Trentham over 1400m carrying 60.5kgs.
5. Grey Way was originally purchased by owner Peter South for a jumping career and was trained by Pat Corboy
6. He had a club foot.
7. In one season as a five year old he won 13 races including the Awapuni Gold Cup where he beat Oopik in track record time.
8. He had 13 jockeys who either had one or multiple wins. Those jockeys were Eddie Low, Max Skelton, Noel Harris, Bill Skelton, Mark Burrridge, Doug Holden, Maurice Campbell, Aly Robinson, Brent Thomson, Bob Skelton, Kevin Morton, Karen Coleman and Acka Cowan.
9. He won a sprint at Riccarton with 62kgs.
10. Of the 51 wins, 48 were on firm ground.

Click HERE to see Hall of Fame footage of Grey Way’s career

John comments – When Grey Way in his heyday, I was a young man with a strong interest in following racing and he undoubtedly was one of my racing heroes – much later in the piece (2005), when we were campaigning Darci Brahma at Riccarton for the 2005 NZ 2000 Guineas, I had the privilege of being introduced to Peter South, who of course was the very famous owner of Grey Way – Peter, who was only in his late 30 when Grey Way started his racing career,  was still actively involved in breeding and racing and over the next 2 to 3 years I would regularly catch up with him at Riccarton –  he was a very engaging individual who was always happy to talk at great lengths about his mighty “Washdyke Wonder” – one of the most interesting things that he told me about Grey Way was that only on very rare occasions would they gallop him ahead of race preparations, preferring just to build his fitness through pace work – you have to wonder if this was a factor in the horse’s amazing longevity. Peter, who had been the Master of the South Canterbury Hunt for several years and an Amateur rider to boot, passed away in 2011 at the age of 74. There is also a Te Akau connection with Grey Way in that his trainer, Pat Corboy, had a daughter Karen, who married Gus Clutterbuck – Gus of course had been a prominent rider in New Zealand during the 70s and 80s, then became a trainer in his own right before linking up with Te Akau to manage their training establishment at Rangiora, before becoming Mark Walker’s assistant trainer in Singapore when Mark moved there in 2010 – Gus and Karen have since retired and now live in Canterbury

ELLERSLIE EASTER EGGS

I can’t let the Easter saga end without mentioning the gallant Sleepy Fox. Way back in 1943 Sleepy Foxhad his first crack at the Easter and was unplaced.

In 1944 Sleepy Fox won his first Easter with 8 stone ( 51kgs). He won it in a canter. The following year he was untroubled with 9 stone 5 (59.5kgs) and then made light of 10 stone 2 pounds ( 64.5kg). As if winning the Easter three times wasn’t enough the seven year old came out in 1947 and carried 9 stone 13 pounds to win his 4th consecutive.

He came back to Ellerslie a year later as an 8 year old for his 6th attempt on a very firm track and it wasn’t to be and believe it or not he returned as a 9yo but he again missed and was immediately retired.

Ellerslie, at Easter, used be a 2 day meeting ( Saturday and Monday) and incredibly Sleepy Fox,  throughout his career,  won a further 5 races over the long weekend over 7 years starting with the two year old race in 1942 and followed up with the open sprint on Monday 3 times and the wfa Great Northern Challenge Stakes which was also run on the Monday. To win 9 races at Ellerslie at the same meeting is astonishing.

Lest we forget wouldn’t the Auckland Racing Club and the industry be doing itself a huge favour by respecting this amazing galloper at this time of the year with a race name in Sleepy Fox’s honour?

WILL TOTE OPERATORS BE PHAZED OUT?

ARE we getting close to a time when tote operators will be phazed out on race days? So many racegoers these days play digitally. They load up the TAB account and that’s where it starts and ends and the good ladies and men behind the counter are completely overlooked.

I had a quick browse of the figures on Sires Produce Stakes Day last month at Trentham. The betting on course was down 4.7% on last year but the phone betting was up 34%. That’s telling us plenty!!!

In saying this I’d like to see tote operators always on course as a back up especially for the major meetings, like Cup Days.

OTAKI IMPROVERS

RAREZA: wasn’t far away in the open sprint after being slowly away. As that was her first run on a new campaign she should continue to improve and once she strikes the preferred wetter tracks she will take all sorts of stopping. She’s only had one unplaced run in 8 starts on heavy ground.

DESERT MYSTIC: after being very slowly away he did well to end up less than three lengths from the winner. He’s another adept in heavy going and won’t lack opportunities on this current campaign.

ASHOKA: had a shocking run in transit in the r65 over 1200m when caught 4 wide without cover. He also had no luck at Counties in the prior first up run. Soft tracks are his go and he will be winning sooner than later.

Good punting!

Des Coppins
021 448 052

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Cranbourne – Friday

TITAHI BAY (who was scratched last week due to heavy track conditions) contests the BM 62 1300m event with Liam Riordan to ride  – Race 8 @ 10.45pm NZT – has had two runs over 1000m this track since resuming and now ready for this trip – talented Filly who looks very capable of striking here – TAB says  “Nice effort in a handy race last time, so looks ready now third up” – No  Odds Showing Yet

Riverton – Saturday

MAROKOPA FALLS runs in the Listed Gore Guineas over 1200m  with Floor Moerman to ride from Barrier 4 – Race 7  @ 3.07pm  – maintaining really good form without managing to win – is ready to perform strongly again and is a very good each way chance here  – TAB says  “key runner, who is a great chance to atone” – Showing Odds of  $9/$3

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Tuesday 31st March

Matamata
 

A 10% share in Malborough Bay has become available on the secondary market. Malborough Bay is a proven performer on the flat in New Zealand, winning six times and running in the money in 19 other races from 36 race days starts.  About 18 months ago the training team had started schooling him over the hurdles as a form of variation in his training and because he showed great aptitude at the jumping game a decision was made in 2025 to get his NZ jumping ticket which he did successfully and then he had one hurdles race at Te Aroha in July 2025, which he probably should have won, but just made a mistake at the last fence and finished third.

With good natural flat speed and an aptitude for jumping, a decision was then made to send him to Victoria to contest hurdles racing over there and so he departed in February, obtained his jumping ticket in Victoria and to date has had one hurdles race in Victoria over 3200m in which he jumped very well but just ran out of condition in the closing stages of that race – this not overly surprising as he had had no flat race lead ups in Victoria, just jumpouts and he has taken huge improvement from his initial Victorian jumping race.

He is set to have his second hurdles start in Victoria at Terang on Sunday19th of April and after that will race at the iconic Warrnambool jumping carnival in the first week of May – a 10% share in this talented galloper has become available for a total sum of $1000 and the share is available in parcels of a minimum of 1% each at $100 and $70 per month per each 1% share from the 1st of April

John says “this is a great opportunity to step into a ready made jumping opportunity for not a big outlay and his next start just around the corner – “Shane”, as Malborough Bay is known as at the Stable, has a lot of natural flat speed and loves wet ground – these are great attribute for Hurdles racing in Victoria, he is a very capable jumper and at just six years old he has a bright future in the Victorian Jumps scene”

if you have interest in this “ready-made” opportunity just respond to this update by email or call/text John 021 921460

Malborough Bay in winning action Te Rapa July 2025 – Haylry Hassman aboard============================================================

Vale Ollie Lawrence and Johan Thomsen

It has been a sad week for the  Fortuna team with two of our long-standing clients having passed away during this last week

Ollie Lawrence had been in several of our horses with us including Singapore based horses and his more recent holdings have been in Malborough Bay, West Indies, Bellatrix Star and Opunake. Ollie who was aged 89 just loved going to the races despite his age and attended most of Bellatrix Star’s races in Australia including Derby Day at Flemington in 2024 where he had the great thrill to see two of his runners, Bellatrix Star and West Indies both compete on that very iconic race day.

Ollie passed away a few days ago after a short illness and I’m sure all of us at involved at Fortuna Racing will extend deepest sympathies to his wife Hazel and the Lawrence family

Johan Thomsen was not a regular attendee on race days in recent years, due to long standing illness, but his wife Marlene and his son Shane would be very well known to many of the Fortuna clients, having been involved in several of our runners over the years, most notably the mighty Melody Belle  and also Malborough Bay. Johan, who was aged 88, had not been well for a long time but on the day before he died, he and Marlene watched Malborough Bay on Trackside having his first Australian Jumps race – now he is at peace and we extend deepest sympathies to Marlene and Shane and the extended Thomsen family.

Guest Commentator – Des Coppins

Greetings John and Fortuna readers

While our last group one race in NZ has been put to bed in absolute style with the Te Akau two year old Seize The Day in the Sires Produce at Trentham, the focus of attention for elite racing continues with the Championship carnival in Sydney with three fabulous Saturdays in a row.
No doubt there will be NZ gallopers keen to follow the path of Vinery Stakes winner, Belle Cheval and I suppose the big question is how many more group ones will our very own Chris Waller and James McDonald rack up?
For those of us unable to be on course at Randwick the Trackside channel will be compulsive viewing either live or in replay mode.
In the meantime we will be keeping a good watch on racing on the home front with  decent enough flat programmes ahead and the jumping excitement just around the corner.

TRACK BIAS – DOES IT REALLY EXIST?
OFTEN controversy exists with track bias. Some of us recognise it as a reality while others believe it has a lot to do with the tempo of the race. As one who spends a fair bit of time on form analysis there is little doubt in my mind that track bias exists.

And we saw it noticeably at Trentham on Saturday. I don’t think I’ve seen Trentham favour the on pace and rail huggers as much as we did on Saturday for quite some time. Fresh, new ground was the contributing factor. In other words a small section of the track which hasn’t been used for a good while for racing through its very busy season.

Putting all this together how good was the winner of the group one NZ Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes, She’s A Dealer? She jumped from one of the outside marbles and sat three wide near the pace. There’s little doubt she would’ve won by a big margin had she drawn inside the way the track was playing.

While Trentham’s fresh ground delivered the consistent track bias, other factors in the past at other venues like, wear and tear from previous race meetings; irrigation and even the wind can be contributing factors. If a strong wind develops on a race day the even spread of irrigation may be jeopardised and certain parts of the track may dry out faster. It therefore becomes an advantage for horses near the lead if the home straight has dried out and those on pace runners will always be hard to run down.

From a punting perspective last Saturday at Trentham it  wasn’t the ideal time to bet without watching ideally the first couple of races.

PRIDE OF JENNI – THE BEST SECOND SINCE VO ROGUE

I don’t know about you but I’m a sucker for those horses in the best races that love going to the front and trying to run their rivals into the ground. Pride of Jenni is the current champion in this manner.

She did her best in last Saturdays Australian Cup and was beaten a lip by back to back winner, Light Infantry Man. She deserved at least a dead heat. She’s an amazing athlete. At times she’s looked absolutely the very best and other times the broodmare paddock may well have been calling.

Her run on Saturday reminded me of the great tear away Vo Rogue who won the group one Australian Cup in 1989 and 1990, capping a remarkable four year association with the race when he ran second to Better Loosen Up in 1991 and second to Dandy Andy in 1988. It’s the Dandy Andy race I’d like to share with you. Check out the replay HERE – Notable that the mighty Bonecrusher ran 3rd in this race

For the record Dandy Andy was raced by prolific Auckland race horse owner, Bob Ross, who also raced the mighty Prince Majestic and was ridden by our very own Brent Thomson.

DID YOU KNOW?

1. By winning the Courtesy Ford Sires Produce Stakes on Saturday at Trentham on Saturday Opie Bosson, for the first time in his 30 year career, topped $5m in stake money on his NZ mounts?

2. That Extreme Choice, the much talked about Australian sire who dominated the 2026 Inglis Sale with his progeny averaging over A$1.56m including a top selling $3m colt, holds a service of $330,000. Not all bad is it for a horse who stood his first season at A$22k?

3. Riverton has stood the test of time over the Easter weekend more so than any other venue. While it no longer has the seemingly iconic jumping programme mixed with flat racing over Easter Saturday and Easter Monday (remember the Great Western Steeples?) it’s the only gallops club which retains racing on these two days.  My baby boomer colleagues who follow the Friday Flash via Fortuna will recall the time when Ellerslie raced on the two days, as did Riccarton and Feilding.
And it remains a mystery why the Easter Handicap, with so much history, isn’t run this Easter Saturday but instead endeavours to try and maintain its profile by running on April 18!!!

BETTING ON WET TRACKS – IS IT WORTH IT?

Each to their own but I don’t mind betting on wet tracks which we may consistently get over the upcoming months

I’ve always found it easier to find winners when you know the track will be a consistent heavy 9 or 10 as opposed to when track conditions change in the summer and autumn through unseasonal rain falls that may have transferred a track rating from a soft 5 to a heavy 10 in the matter of hours.

On deep, wet tracks I’m a fan of outside barriers, especially in sprint races. Inside gates are strictly taboo for me. Also pedigrees come into it when assessing the right form for wet tracks. Some sires do well and others are way off the mark.

I’ll try and delve into this more as the season wears on but as an example I’d back a son of Belardo as opposed to a son of Savabeel on a heavy 9 or 10 every time!

UNLUCKY AT TRENTHAM

DECEMBER: this lightly tried five year old was desperately unlucky to be stuck with an outside barrier. It covered far more ground than any and after being dictated very wide into the straight he kept up an impressive gallop to land the minor money. There’s little doubt on the way the track bias was playing he should’ve won!

CROUCH: hasn’t been far away in races like the NZ Cup ( 5th) and the Wellington Cup ( 2nd) and again on Saturday in the Awapuni Gold Cup he hit the line as good as any. If the stable elects to push forward to the Hawkes Bay Cup st Otaki on April 12 he will go close.

CHEERIO: is a filly who should go straight to the top. Her run was massive on Saturday as she attacked the line better than anything to run second over 1200m. She’s clearly ready for 1400m.

Good punting!

Des Coppins
021 448 052

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Fortuna Shares Available – Karaka Book One Yearling  by CIRCUS MAXIMUS out of ASAMA BLUE 

VIVACIOUS contests the Open 1400 event with Stable Apprentice, Hayley Hassman, claiming 2kgs to ride – Race 3 @ 1.19pm – impressive when winning on resuming 1200m this track 4th March R75 Grade  – up in grade here but carries a featherweight   – is  in career best condition and looks very well placed here to make it two in a row – TAB says  “Has won second up in the past and is capable of building on that record – drops in weight, so go again” – Showing Odds of  $3.50/$1.40

MAROKOPA FALLS lines up in the R65 1200 event down the Riccarton chute with Stable Apprentice, Hayley Hassman, claiming 2kgs to ride – Race 5 @ 2.28pm – a strong winner on debut as a 2yo in November 2024, “Linda” has yet to greet the judge since, despite performing with credit with things just not going her way at times – is  in great order and racing well – gets the right race here with conditions to suit and is a genuine top 3 chance -TAB says  “has beaten some handy Fillies this season and has raced with distinction in better fields than she meets here – stick with her” – Showing Odds of  $4.20/$1.70

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Other News

 Fortuna Shares Available – Karaka Book One Yearling  by CIRCUS MAXIMUS out of ASAMA BLUE 

Victoria Jumps season gets under way Thursday 26th March at Warrnambool – the Fortuna runners Leaderboard and Malborough Bay will be  there

Marlborough Bay is at the opposite end of the spectrum, now a six-year-old, he has only had one jumps race to date, that being a hurdle event at Te Aroha in July of last year where he finished third, but probably could have won the race if he had not bungled the final jump – he has had two jumps trials in Victoria to prepare for his debut hurdles event in Victoria over 3200 m and his work and demeanor suggest that he is going to make his mark. A strong performer in flat racing  (6 career wins) in NZ indicates that his speed on the flat, combined with a natural aptitude for the jumping game, may well hold the key for a lucrative time of it in jumps racing over the next few seasons

Guest Commentator – Des Coppins

Good morning John and Fortuna followers.

The racing spotlight falls on Trentham for the next couple of Saturdays with black type races galore including the NZ Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes and the Courtesy Ford Sires Produce both at group one level on Saturday week. This Saturday it’s all about the Wellington Guineas, the Lightning and the time honoured NZ St Leger. The weather forecast looks favourable all the way through to the end of of the month which is great news.

TRENTHAM TRACK MAINTENANCE

The Trentham course is going for some much needed TLC after the Sires Produce Stakes meeting. The plan is to work on the track for 10 weeks which will help maintain its integrity and ensure that it can make it through the tough winter season which kicks off on June 6 for the Manawatu Steeplechase and Awapuni Hurdles before the Grant Plumbing Wellington Steeples Day at the end of the month of June.

Over the past 7 months Trentham has hosted a significant amount of race days, a period that started on September 20 and has gone through to March 28, a total of 12 meetings. Last year Trentham hosted 1451 horses over 16 meetings, 139 races and 29 group and listed races, three of which were run during April to the June period the club is shutting things down for.

This year, as of March 1, Trentham has hosted a total of 10 meetings ( with Saturday and Saturday week still to come) with 85 races won and a total of 944 horses that have run on the course proper, with an overall total of 26 group and listed race. Although these numbers are down from last year, without the shut down period, it is still the same volume and with roughly 3 meetings a month, this doesn’t leave much time for the track to properly recover, which ultimately may hinder the overall integrity and performance of the track itself.

Understanding this and listening to the expert advice of the Trentham track curator Jamie Phillips, who explains vividly that the track is “tired”, it is therefore in the best interest for the track to be “freshened.”
Jamie’s plans are as follows:

• He will first start by heavily scarifying the track – this is the process in which any dead, drying or unwanted organic matter is removed, helping to ensure that the organic matter that remains is of the highest quality suitable for racing.
• Following on from this he intends to circumnavigate the track with the Verti-Quake, a machine that is designed to de compact soil and improve the health of the turf by improving water infiltration and air flow to the remaining organic material.
• The next step in the process is to hit the track with the Verti-Drain – this will aim to create air pockets in the turf that will significantly improve and strengthen the root health of the organic matter on the track, overall ensuring that the lifespan of the track itself is further increased.
• The final step in the process is to go over the track and under-sow new organic matter. This will aim to fill in the heavily scarified areas of the track where organic matter is at its weakest while in other areas it will help to boost density which also helps to reduce the unwanted growth of other organic materials. This process will result in an increase of the overall soil health and the integrity of the track.

This whole process is planned to take the length of the break between next Saturday and raceday resumption in  early June with a much needed process that will help Trentham long term and assist in ensuring great racing continues on the champagne turf for an indefinite period.

DID YOU KNOW THAT?

1. James McDonald’s first group one was two weeks short of 18 years ago when winning the NZ Throughbred Breeders Stakes at Te Aroha on Special Mission for Peter McKay. To think he’s now a three-peat world famous jockey and ready break Damien Oliver’s all time record of 129. He sits on 128 and on the big Golden Slipper stage on Saturday he should at least equal if not better the record.

2. Brian Anderton rode his first winner at the now defunct Beaumont track with White Robe in 1950 when he was 13 years old. White Robe gave him his first winning ride at Wyndham a couple of months before. On Sunday he trained his 7th Publicans Cup winner for the Beaumont club on his home track, Wingatui. It was back in 1987 when Beaumont races shifted to Wingatui.

3. Irrigating tracks is a balancing act and it’s hard to work out why some tracks are racing on heavy surfaces when the rain falls have been minimal. Good examples in the last couple of weeks have been New Plymouth, Tauranga and Wanganui. Wanganui had 8mls in the 24 hours before race day and no rain in the previous 6 days. Tauranga had 17mils in the week before Thursday and another 7 or 8 mils between Thursday and Saturday and New Plymouth the week prior had 12 mils in the 5 days preceding its meeting.

4. Isn’t it amazing yet sad at the same time when you consider how  well the NZ St Leger has played its part as either a lead in or an aftermath to the Wellington Cup. In my time the likes of Guest Star, Secured Deposit, Imaprince, Waisake, Leaderboard and Wolfgang have all won both. The sadness comes with the fact it’s only a listed race these days unlike its English equivalent which is and will always be a group one race. Mind you we simply just don’t have the genuine stayers in significant depth  anymore. The Silver Knights and Dalrays of many years gone by were not only St Leger winners but they were Melbourne Cup winners, too!

5. The stake money won this season between the Mark Walker/Sam Bergerson combination and Stephen Marsh on the Trainers premiership  table is less than $110,000 with both raking up over $6m or more with still 4 months to play, Both teams have done a sterling  job but the interesting thing is that while Stephen may not catch Mark/Sam on races won he still has  every chance to win the stakes money race for the first time and better his very best set last season with $6,9000 won. He has around $500,000 to go.

IMPROVERS OR UNLUCKY LAST TIME

SOUTHERN CHILLI; in the 1400m for the r65 class at Tauranga this galloper didn’t get the clear air the jockey would have hoped for. The track conditions weren’t an issue which augurs well going forward.
CHATTAHOOCHEE: invariably strikes form at this time of the year. It’s still reasonably fresh on a new campaign and it looked one of the unlucky runs in the home straight of the Japan Trophy.
COULTHARD; hasn’t had much luck in its racing of late and again at Wanganui it had trouble clearing traffic in the straight.

Good punting!

Ps Enquiries are coming in on a daily basis for my 37th Melbourne Cup Tour with top jockey Lisa Allpress.
If you would like to join us and around 70 or 80 like minded people on the 5-day or 8-day tour with so many attractive add ons please  drop me a line dcoppins@xtra.co.nz and I’ll get one of the experienced travel brokers at Sporting Tours to immediately follow up.

Click HERE to see Des’  Melbourne Cup Flyer with all details

Des Coppins
021 448 052

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